Big Ten battle pits Fighting Illini against Buckeyes

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2009 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Ten rivals collide in Columbus today, as the Ohio State Buckeyes play host to the 18th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini.

Illinois coach Bruce Weber is hoping his team puts forth a much better offensive showing than it did in a recent loss to Penn State, as the Illini scored a mere 33 points, by far their worst effort of the season. Despite the setback, Illinois is still having a sensational campaign, going 21-6, which includes a 9-5 mark in conference. The Illini, who haven't lost consecutive games this year, are an even 4-4 in true road games, winning two in a row outside of Champaign. Consistency is the key to UI's success as the team has run out the same starting five in 25 straight games.

Ohio State will try to put the brakes on a two-game slide, and the team should be confident coming in as it sports a 13-2 home record to this point in the season. At 17-7 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play, coach Thad Matta's club can significantly improve its chances of securing an NCAA Tournament bid with a win over the Illini this afternoon. The Buckeyes are 5-4 against ranked foes this season, and have won two in a row over such opponents. Going back a bit further, OSU has won seven of its last 11 against teams in the Top-25.

These two teams met in Champaign back on January 20th, with the Illini taking a 67-49 decision. As a result, Illinois' lead in the all-time series stands at 101-64. Ohio State owns a 40-39 advantage in games played in Columbus over the years, and the Buckeyes have won three straight versus the Illini at Value City Arena.

Balance on offense and one of the stingiest defenses in the country are the reasons Illinois is in position to challenge for the Big Ten regular-season title as well as a favorable seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Demetri McCamey leads the team in scoring (11.8 ppg) while ranking second to Chester Frazier in assists (130). Frazier has dished out 144 helpers and has come up with a club-best 37 steals. Mike Tisdale (11.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Mike Davis (10.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Trent Meacham (10.0 ppg) round out the unit's double-digit scorers, demonstrating the total team concept rather than relying on one or two star players. The Illini are allowing just 55.7 ppg and the team ranks second in the conference and 28th nationally in FG percentage defense (.392) while sitting atop the league and placing eighth in the country in three-point FG percentage defense (.286). The Illini certainly did the job defensively in the recent loss to Penn State, holding the Nittany Lions to 28.3 percent shooting from the floor and only 38 points. Unfortunately, Illinois couldn't find open shots, and missed the majority of the ones it did, netting 33 points (UI's lowest point total in more than 60 years) on only 30 percent FG efficiency.

Ohio State's Evan Turner is one of the more productive players in the Big Ten, averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game to lead his team in all three categories. William Buford (11.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jon Diebler (11.3 ppg, 3.3 ppg) are both netting double digits for the Buckeyes, who put up 67.8 ppg while permitting 61.3 ppg. The team is knocking down its field goals at a 48.3 percent clip while allowing the opposition a 40.3 percent success rate. Diebler went off in OSU's recent 72-69 loss at Northwestern, scoring 28 points on the strength of eight three-pointers, the team as a whole converting 52.6 percent from out on the perimeter. Turner added 14 points, six assists and five boards in the setback, while B.J. Mullens came off the bench to log a double-double with 11 points and the same number of rebounds. The Buckeyes led by double digits in the second half, but the Wildcats rallied to put an end to OSU's 11-game win streak in the series.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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