Big Ten brawl pits Buckeyes against Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/18/2012 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter rivals meet in Ann Arbor tonight, as the sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes challenge the 17th-ranked Michigan Wolverines in what is an important late Big Ten Conference affair.

Ohio State comes in sporting a 22-4 overall record, and its 10-3 league ledger has it tied with Michigan State for first place entering the weekend. Michigan is 19-7 on the year, and at 9-4 in conference is just a game back in the standings.

The Buckeyes claimed a 78-68 win at Minnesota on Valentine's Day to mark their seventh victory in the last eight games, and improve to 5-3 in true road bouts in the process.

Michigan is a perfect 14-0 at home this season, and the team knocked off visiting Illinois in its most recent outing last Sunday. It was the second straight win for the Wolverines, marking their first winning streak since also prevailing in back-to-back outings at home versus Wisconsin and Northwestern on January 8 and 11, respectively.

This is the second meeting of the season between these two teams, as Ohio State claimed a 64-49 win in Columbus back on January 29 to take a 91-71 lead in the all-time series. The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings, and 15 of the last 17 overall. OSU is 5-2 in the series when both teams come in among the nationally ranked, but the Wolverines are 52-26 in games played in Ann Arbor over the years.

William Buford scored 24 points and Jared Sullinger tallied 23, leading Ohio State to its 10-point win at Minnesota earlier this week. Buford added eight rebounds and five assists to his solid stat line, while Sullinger also grabbed eight boards and converted 10-of-12 free throws. Deshaun Thomas chipped in 12 points for the Buckeyes, who shot 44.6 percent from the field and made good on 22-of-28 foul shots. OSU claimed a 37-32 edge on the glass, and committed just nine turnovers compared to 14 for the Golden Gophers. The Buckeyes are in the enviable position of challenging for the Big Ten regular-season title and possible top seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament thanks to the efforts of Sullinger (17.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Buford (15.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Thomas (14.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg), a trio of double-digit scorers who happen to contribute in a host of other ways as well. As a team, Ohio State owns significant margins in scoring (+18.7), rebounding (+7.0) and turnovers (+5.3), with their effort at the defensive end (57.1 ppg) perhaps being its most impressive.

The Wolverines put four players in double figures, led by Tim Hardaway, Jr. with 15 points, as they topped visiting Illinois last weekend in a 70-61 final. Trey Burke added 14 points despite an poor shooting effort (5-of-15, 0-4 from three-point range), Evan Smotrycz came off the bench to tally 13 points and Zack Novak chipped in a dozen for the Maize and Blue, who nailed half of their total shots while holding the Illini to 38.9 percent field goal efficiency. UM lost the battle on the boards (33-27), but committed just nine turnovers compared to 13 for Illinois. The Wolverines claimed a 10-0 edge in points on the break, and they outscored the Illini in the paint, 26-18. Hardaway, Jr. (14.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and Burke (14.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.8 apg) form one of the top backcourts in the Big Ten, but neither has been all that lethal when it comes to hitting their shots, the former doing so just 41.1 percent of the time, and the latter at 43.1 percent. As a team, Michigan is averaging 66.9 ppg in knocking down 46.1 percent of its field goal attempts, while yielding 60.5 ppg and goading the opposition into just shy of 13 turnovers per outing.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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